In Great by Choice, Jim Collins introduces the idea of firing bullets, the cannonballs. This lesson is about how to make big decisions without gambling your entire company on a guess.

Imagine you are at sea and an enemy ship is approaching. You have limited gunpowder. You can use all of it to fire one big cannonball and hope to hit the target. If you miss, you lose. Or, you can start by firing small bullets. Each bullet costs little, and you adjust your aim with every shot. When a bullet finally hits the target, you know your aim is correct. You then load the cannon and fire the big shot.

The core idea is that a bullet is a low-cost and low-risk test. A cannonball is a bet, and you commit serious resources. The mistake many companies make is firing cannonballs before they know where to aim.

Collins’ research found that the most successful companies in uncertain environments did not avoid bold moves. They simply tested first, gathered evidence, and then executed.

Apple and the iPod

Apple’s story shows how this works in practice.

When the iPod first launched, it was small. By 2002, it accounted for less than 3% of Apple’s net sales. This was not a transformative or revolutionary product. It was simply the bullet.

Apple observed and tested. Soon, customers loved the product and sales more than doubled. People liked using iTunes on the Mac. There was growing frustration with illegal music downloads. People wanted a simple way to buy music legally.

Apple then took the next step. It launched the iTunes Store and negotiated with record labels to sell songs for 99 cents. This was well received, and soon millions of people were willing to pay for music if it was easy and reasonably priced. Windows users wanted access too, and there were more than a billion Windows computers.

Only after gathering this evidence did Apple fire the cannonball. The company is fully committed to the iPod ecosystem. While in hindsight this may look like a single bold release, when you look behind the scenes, it is a series of bullets.

Why This Matters for Entrepreneurs

Entrepreneurs often feel pressure to move fast and think big. This is through big launches and hires, and investments. But moving fast like this might quickly become betting recklessly.

Firing bullets is important because it gives you information. You test a product with a small group before scaling. You trial a new marketing technique before putting in a massive budget. You pilot a new service before hiring a full team around it.

If the bullet misses, the damage is limited, and you can adjust your aim. If the bullet hits the target, you now have proof that what you are doing is working. You are then ready to fire the cannonball.

The real skill entrepreneurs should have is not coming up with new ideas, but recognising which small ideas deserve to become big ones. Turning a proven bullet into a well-aimed cannonball matters more.

Key Takeaways

  • Test before you commit to big resources. Start with small, low-cost experiments before committing serious money or time to a product or service that may not hit the target.
  • Scale what works, based on evidence. Your bullets are your evidence. Use this evidence to decide where to invest heavily.
  • Stay disciplined. Success comes from patience and adjusting your aim when it misses. Do not rush to commit to the cannonball fully without firing bullets.
Thought Leadership